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Wednesday, December 18, 2019

In search of full 48-minute performance, Bulls visit Wizards - NBCSports.com

Tonight, the Bulls visit the nation’s capital for a matchup with one of the league’s most potent offenses in the Wizards. The game tips at 6 p.m. CT on NBC Sports Chicago — until then, here’s what to watch for:

Wizards’ last five (1-4)

  • Dec. 16 — W at Pistons: 133-119

  • Dec. 14 — L at Grizzlies: 128-111

  • Dec. 10 — L at Hornets: 114-107

  • Dec. 8 — L vs. Clippers: 135-119

  • Dec. 6 — L at Heat: 112-103

Storyline(s) for each team

The Wizards are one of the wonkiest teams going. At 8-17, they have the worst defensive rating (116.7) in the league and are fully in the throes of a rebuild — on paper, a prime ‘get-right game’ opportunity. But they also boast an impossibly potent offensive attack (fourth in offensive rating, 112.8), helmed by the NBA’s fifth-leading scorer in Bradley Beal. Staggering but true: In all but one of the Wizards’ 25 games this season, both teams have scored over 100 points.

The Bulls have the top-rated defense and 28th-rated offense in the NBA over their last seven games (ninth and 29th on the season, respectively). Theoretically, this Wizards team would be a juicy matchup for a team with that profile. But as evidenced in Monday night’s game in Oklahoma City — in which the Bulls ceded a 26-point lead to the Thunder — no advantage, narrative or prediction is safe with this team until the final buzzer sounds.

Player to watch: Davis Bertans

A comprehensive list of NBA players to shoot 45% or higher from 3-point range on more than eight attempts per game:

  • 2015-16 Stephen Curry (45.4%, 11.2 3PA/g)

  • 2019-20 David Bertans (45.7%, 8.4 3PA/g)

Am I saying Bertans should be the second-ever unanimous league MVP? I’m not not saying that. Either way, he’s someone to be very wary of tonight, especially depending on how the Bulls defend the pick-and-roll. All season, their blitzing coverage of PnR plays has been notorious, but against the Thunder, they spent long stretches of the game switching, and Chris Paul burned their bigs time and time again. 

With Bertans, it’s pick your poison. If the Bulls blitz the Wizards’ ballhandlers — Beal and the resurgent Isaiah Thomas, chiefly — it’ll throw their defense into rotations that could result in open look catch-and-shoot looks. If they switch, Bertans isn’t afraid to pull up from anywhere on the floor, especially over a small. And if they get out in transition? Look out:

Bertans is fourth in the league in ESPN’s offensive RPM and eighth among qualified players in true shooting (64.5%) and eFG% (66.5%). In short, he’s an absolute menace. Come for the show, but it’ll be in the Bulls best interest if he endures a cold shooting night in this one.

Trend to watch: Quarter-by-quarter efficiency

In the first half of the Thunder game, the Bulls looked the best they have all season. At the break, they had their highest opening-half point total of the season (68), were shooting 58.3% from the field (43.5% from 3-point range), had logged 19 assists, scored 26 points off turnovers and led by 19. That obviously didn’t sustain, and it’s the latest in a long line of late-game collapses. 

Here’s a look at select season-long, quarter-by-quarter numbers for the Bulls:

Quarter Net Rating AST/TO ratio eFG% PACE Point differential
1st 6.2 1.88 51% 102.9 +48
2nd -0.1 1.54 49.6% 103.93 -6
3rd -5.9 1.3 50.8% 101.38 -39
4th -7.2 1.31 48% 99.1 -53

Another fast start for the Bulls isn’t out of the question in this one (and, in fact, might be likely). But — and I probably don’t have to tell you this — beware of waning performance as the game progresses and/or slows down. The Wizards are a prolific shooting team with the ability to evaporate most any lead at an instant, and the Bulls haven’t proven they’re a team capable of putting together full 48-minute performances on a consistent basis.

And, not for nothing, Beal is one of the most awe-inspiring isolation scorers in the league — a showdown between him and Zach LaVine (26.5 points per game on the road this season) would be fun. The Bulls hope it doesn’t get to that point. It probably will.

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December 19, 2019 at 12:22AM
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In search of full 48-minute performance, Bulls visit Wizards - NBCSports.com
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